Seminar has been canceled due to current events

Apr 24, 2020

Time

14:00 - 16:00

Speaker

Dr. T Patzek (Kaust)

Abstract

Humanity faces existential threats: global heating, severe droughts punctuated with deluges, overpopulation, rampant pollution and decline of all high‐quality resources. However, almost all world governments are pushing continuation of business as usual, albeit by “green” and “sustainable” means. Unless replicated everywhere, commendable behavior of a few individuals has almost zero effect on the resource‐wasting societies. The 11.1 terawatts of continuous power from oil and coal cannot be replaced 1:1 with photovoltaics (PV) within a reasonable time; a transition to wind turbines is even less probable. Even if humanity devoted 35 million barrels of oil per day (Mbopd) to the solar PV transition, it still would take 51 years. Devoting 1 billion tons of coal per year would make this transition happen in 128 years. Currently we do not have 35 Mbopd and 1 billion tons of coal to spare for decades. In fact, without investing 14‐21 trillion USD over the next 20 years, world oil production might drop to 20 Mbopd, less than I chose to devote each year for 51 years to the very large size (VLS) PV arrays and their next‐generation replacements after 30 years of operation. Since all other means have been exhausted, we must limit and reverse population growth and consume much less of everything. Otherwise, we will continue to commit suicide as a species, while denying the truth.